Valleywag is running a good story about Michael Arrington, the has-been, and I feel validated because somebody else is finally saying it. Arrington himself will stay on his feet - he's not a dumb guy, but the TechCrunch concept is on its way out to pasture, if it's not already there.

For a second time, a river of venture capital was flowing through Silicon Valley, and someone had to be there to document it all. Since Web 2.0 was more about traffic than IPOs, it was only natural for a kingmaker to emerge in the media. TechCrunch marshaled a lot of users around Web 2.0 products and collected some handsome ad revenue in exchange. That was all well and good, but as Arrington will learn, media is a fickle business. It doesn't take much to slip into irrelevance.

Times Were Good, But How Do You Stay Relevant Now?

The money river dried up in a hurry, and TechCrunch has been caught with its pants down. Lately, it's been nothing but stories about mobile phones and giant Silicon Valley companies. This is likely to continue for a while, with the anemic startup throughput we're seeing.

Unfortunately for Arrington, those stories don't draw a lot of traffic. Why? Because they're boring. Without new startups to write about, TechCrunch has become a bullhorn for press releases. There are two recipes to fix this: break stories through research or bring readership with writing talent. It's damn sure the latter won't happen (remember I refused to work for TC), so TechCrunch will have to start investigating, and this probably means finding a new niche.

The First Dotcom Bust Killed Publications, Too

The editor of a publication establishes its direction. With startups gone, TechCrunch is just thrashing, and is running out of energy. The next couple of months will be the critical period that decides if TechCrunch thrives or becomes the next Infoworld, and it will all depend on the editor. Unfortunately, being unexperienced in the media, the odds are stacked against Arrington. Uncov, however, will be continuing its long tradition of awesome. I ain't no suit-wearin' business man like Mike. I'm just a gangster, I suppose.

Arrington spends a lot of time telling startups that they need to be dynamic. They need to roll with the punches and adapt to the climate. The climate has just changed violently for the TechCrunch-style media, and Michael Arrington's face will soon be marred by dust, sweat and blood.

The Arena is kind to no one.